Real Economy Distortion Index
(REDI Score) 2026
Government says economy is fine. Freight collapsed 17%. Delinquencies spiking. Calculate your REDI Score -- the truth behind the headlines.
REDI Score Calculator
Adjust 7 economic indicators. Defaults reflect current 2026 data.
Job Posting-to-Hire Ratio
35%Percentage of posted jobs that result in actual hires
Freight Volume Change (YoY)
-17%Year-over-year change in freight shipping volume
Subprime Auto Delinquency Rate
8.2%Percentage of subprime auto loans 60+ days delinquent
Credit Card Charge-Off Rate
5.1%Percentage of credit card balances written off as losses
Small Business Bankruptcy Rate
1.8%Annual rate of small business bankruptcy filings
Wage vs Productivity Delta
-3.2%Gap between wage growth and productivity growth
AI Displacement Exposure
6/10Your industry/role exposure to AI automation (1=low, 10=high)
Live REDI Preview
100/100
REDI Score -- Frequently Asked Questions
What is the REDI Score?
The Real Economy Distortion Index measures the gap between official government economic reports and real-world indicators like freight volumes, delinquency rates, bankruptcies, and AI displacement. Score ranges 0-100, where higher = more distortion.
Why do official jobs numbers get revised down?
BLS uses survey-based estimates that overcount job creation by 30-50% initially. In 2025, initial estimates were revised down by 818,000 jobs -- the largest revision since 2009. REDI Score captures this distortion in real time.
Is freight volume a real economy leading indicator?
Yes. The Cass Freight Index tracks actual goods movement -- you can't fake shipping containers. When freight drops 17% while GDP claims growth, it signals demand destruction the official numbers haven't caught yet.
Do delinquencies predict recessions?
Subprime auto delinquencies above 7.4% historically precede recessions by 6-12 months. Current rate: 8.2%. Credit card charge-offs at 5.1% are approaching the 2008 peak of 6.8%.
How does AI displacement distort employment data?
AI replaces tasks faster than BLS surveys detect. Ghost job postings inflate 'openings' while actual hires fall. The posting-to-hire ratio has dropped from 65% to 35%.
What does a high REDI Score mean for credit?
A REDI Score above 60 signals real economic conditions are significantly worse than reported -- higher probability of income disruption, utilization spikes, and FICO drops of 40-80 points.
How is REDI Score calculated?
Seven weighted indicators: job posting-to-hire ratio, freight volume change, subprime auto delinquency, credit card charge-off rate, small business bankruptcy rate, wage-vs-productivity delta, and AI displacement exposure.
What are agency opportunities during distortion?
High distortion periods create massive credit repair demand. Agencies using CRC + AI tools can capture $62K-$247K in first-year revenue by targeting distortion-affected ZIP codes before competitors.